TSP Nerd — TSP Allocation Dashboard
Equity Curves
2026 YTD Context
The strategy is down -0.64% while I Fund is +9.88% — a gap driven by tariff-driven volatility in Q1. The AND gate (VIX backwardation AND SPY below 200-day SMA) correctly moved to G Fund during the late March tariff shock when both signals fired together, avoiding heavy equity losses. On prior single-gate false alarms — Feb VIX spike without trend break, early March chop — the AND gate stayed invested where a VIX-only gate would have whipsawed. Over 15+ years of backtest the AND gate is defensive on ~9% of rebalance days (vs 17% for VIX-only). Full backtest context →
FULL EQUITY — BOTH SIGNALS CLEAR
Both signals clear — momentum runs in C Fund
combined verdict
Full G Fund only when both signals flash bear. Either alone is informational (Watch state). Updated 2026-09-18 23:09
Current Allocation
Monthly Transfers
of 2 used
1 remaining
1 transfer left this month · G moves are free
Transfer Deadline
Strategy Performance
Growth of $100,000 since 2010
Total Return
1356%
16yr backtest
Sharpe Ratio
1.182
risk-adjusted
Max Drawdown
-32.0%
vs C: -33.7%
AI Research Council
Four agents analyze and debate every Monday. Momentum drives allocation -- agents provide market context.
No allocation change this commentary week — the AND-gate momentum signal reads 100% I Fund, and the strategy stays fully invested in international equity momentum unless the defense gate (VIX/VIX3M ≥ 0.95 AND SPY < SMA200) triggers or the Bull-Stable regime confirms a flip.
Market Commentary
Last week's defining move was a synchronized equity-and-bond sell-off driven by rising oil and a hawkish repricing of the rate path — the F Fund (AGG) offered no shelter, leaving G as the only sleeve carrying positive. Breadth is deteriorating from the bottom up, with the S Fund leading the drawdown (-2.0% 1wk / -4.9% 1mo), the textbook late-cycle tell all three agents flagged. Here the debate turned unusually sharp: the regime model still reads Bull-Stable at 1.00 confidence and the momentum ensemble points 100% to the I Fund, but the Sentiment and Macro Analysts both warned that the 30-day regime lookback is lagging price action, breadth, and a flipped stock-bond correlation. Most strikingly, the Risk Analyst dissented from its OWN prior 100%-I allocation — calling it 'indefensible' to concentrate into a falling international sleeve during a correlation crisis (avg equity corr 0.76) with zero diversification buffer. The Macro Analyst holds Neutral but now favors G over F for any defensive sleeve, arguing G is the only genuine capital-preservation instrument left in the TSP menu once AGG stops hedging. That said, this is a commentary week with no allocation change, and the rules-based system does not override on sentiment alone absent a confirmed regime flip. The intellectual tension is real: the signal says stay fully invested in international equity momentum, while the council's own evidence leans defensive — the reader should weigh the model's discipline against the near-term rollover risk.
Where the Agents Disagree
Position: The Risk Analyst dissented from its own 100%-I allocation, calling it indefensible to concentrate in a falling international sleeve amid a correlation crisis and would slash equity exposure toward G/C.
Counter: The rules-based momentum signal points 100% to I Fund because the Bull-Stable regime holds and the defense gate has not triggered; agents add risk color but do not override the mechanical signal absent a confirmed regime break.
Arbiter: The Risk Analyst is directionally right on the near-term tail risk, but on a commentary week the discipline of the rules wins — the system exists precisely to prevent whipsawing out of a fully-invested posture on sentiment. I side with holding the signal while flagging the concentration risk loudly.
Position: The Sentiment Analyst argues the regime detector is a lagging trend-follower — leaning on a 1.00-confidence Bull-Stable label while breadth breaks is how you get caught long into a late-cycle rollover.
Counter: The Macro Analyst maintains that the constructive 6-month trend and the model's discipline still justify Neutral, and that G — not a wholesale exit — is the correct defensive expression if the tape confirms.
Arbiter: Sentiment's critique of the short regime lookback is the most valuable point in the debate; the model's blind spot to an oil-driven repricing is genuine. But 'lagging' is not 'wrong yet' — I weight the breadth rollover as a warning to watch for a gate trigger, not a reason to preempt the rules this week.
Position: The Macro Analyst holds Neutral and now favors G over F for the defensive sleeve, arguing G is the only true capital-preservation instrument once AGG stops hedging.
Counter: The Risk Analyst counters that a 'High' risk rating paired with a G weight of 0.0 is internally contradictory and demands an actual G/F preservation sleeve, not just a stated preference.
Arbiter: Both are right about G's role; the incoherence was in the original allocation, not the analysis. If the defense gate fires, a G-weighted posture is the correct move — but until then the signal governs positioning.
Where They Agree
- Breadth is deteriorating from the bottom up, with the S Fund leading the drawdown (-2.0% 1wk / -4.9% 1mo) — a classic late-cycle risk-appetite contraction.
- A simultaneous equity-and-bond sell-off on rising oil has broken the 60/40 hedge: F (AGG) offers no shelter, and only the G Fund is carrying positive.
- The cross-equity correlation crisis (avg 0.76) means there is little internal diversification across the C/S/I equity sleeves right now.
Risks to Watch
- Regime-model blind spot: the 30-day SPY momentum lookback may be too short to capture the oil-driven higher-for-longer repricing, risking a whipsaw if Bull-Stable flips.
- Broken stock-bond hedge: with the correlation turning positive on rising oil, F (AGG) no longer provides ballast, leaving only G as genuine shelter.
- Single-fund concentration: a 100% I Fund signal is undiversified at the fund level and directly exposed to currency and geopolitical-fragmentation risk during a correlation crisis.
- Breadth contagion: watch whether large caps (C) follow small caps (S) lower — that would confirm the late-cycle rollover the council flagged.
Individual Analyses
Macro Analyst
Fed policy, inflation, yield curves
The model still reads Bull-Stable, but rising oil, a synchronized bond-and-equity sell-off, and sharp small-cap underperformance signal a momentum stall and a hawkish repricing of the rate path. We downgrade to Neutral: favor G Fund carry over rate-sensitive F, stay neutral on large-cap C and international I where the longer-term uptrend is intact, and underweight S Fund until breadth stabilizes. This is a commentary week — no allocation change — but conviction in risk assets is fading into a midterm-year macro backdrop.
Sentiment Analyst
VIX, put/call ratios, fund flows
Sentiment has turned modestly negative: an oil-driven, dual equity-and-bond sell-off plus visible small-cap breadth deterioration are lifting risk aversion, while doom-cycle recession narratives dampen conviction without producing outright panic. With last week's Risk-On call punished (-2.3%) and no positive-carry safe harbor outside G, the read favors trimming risk conviction over aggressive hedging. The constructive 6-month trend keeps this a caution signal, not a capitulation call.
Risk Manager
VaR, correlations, tail risk
The signal concentrates 100% in the I fund, which is undiversified at the fund level even though the underlying international basket is broad; with a correlation crisis (0.76) active, there is no equity hedge to fall back on. Weekly 95% VaR is roughly -2.4% (I-fund annualized vol 10.6%), consistent with last week's -2.3% realized loss, so a one-week move of that magnitude is expected, not tail. This is a commentary week — I hold the live allocation, but flag that international concentration plus a weak-sentiment/strong-regime divergence warrants tighter monitoring; a defensive G rotation should trigger immediately if the VIX/VIX3M AND SPY<SMA200 gate fires.
Strategy Arbiter
Synthesizes into recommendation
Last week's defining move was a synchronized equity-and-bond sell-off driven by rising oil and a hawkish repricing of the rate path — the F Fund (AGG) offered no shelter, leaving G as the only sleeve carrying positive. Breadth is deteriorating from the bottom up, with the S Fund leading the drawdown (-2.0% 1wk / -4.9% 1mo), the textbook late-cycle tell all three agents flagged. Here the debate turned unusually sharp: the regime model still reads Bull-Stable at 1.00 confidence and the momentum ensemble points 100% to the I Fund, but the Sentiment and Macro Analysts both warned that the 30-day regime lookback is lagging price action, breadth, and a flipped stock-bond correlation. Most strikingly, the Risk Analyst dissented from its OWN prior 100%-I allocation — calling it 'indefensible' to concentrate into a falling international sleeve during a correlation crisis (avg equity corr 0.76) with zero diversification buffer. The Macro Analyst holds Neutral but now favors G over F for any defensive sleeve, arguing G is the only genuine capital-preservation instrument left in the TSP menu once AGG stops hedging. That said, this is a commentary week with no allocation change, and the rules-based system does not override on sentiment alone absent a confirmed regime flip. The intellectual tension is real: the signal says stay fully invested in international equity momentum, while the council's own evidence leans defensive — the reader should weigh the model's discipline against the near-term rollover risk.
Council last met: 2026-09-13